Common Trajectory Prediction Capability for Decision Support Tools,” 5 th FAA/Eurocontrol Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar

Trajectory prediction capabilities are an essential building block for most if not all Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools (DSTs). DST applications range from en route to terminal operations with advisories ranging from passive flow suggestions to active clearance/instructions. Many past DSTs have been fielded with their own unique trajectory prediction capability. The objective of this paper is to identify significant performance factors and design considerations for developing a Common Trajectory Prediction Capability. A system engineering approach is used to resolve key design issues and tradeoffs such as the balance between prediction accuracy and computational speed for a variety of DST applications. Controller intent uncertainty, the major source of prediction error, is mitigated by the control advisories of advanced DSTs that close the control loop. Key aspects of a common trajectory prediction module are presented including an approach to dynamically adapt the performance to support a range of DST applications. The characteristics of different aircraft performance models, the flight path integration logic and software implementation issues are also discussed